Patient values

PSC subtype

Age at PSC diagnosis

yrs

18100

Laboratory values

Enter blood values from the time of diagnosis, or during follow-up (validated up to 3 years after diagnosis). Each row shows the reference limit used for normalisation — adjust it to match your own lab if needed.

Estimated outcome

Awaiting values

Amsterdam-Oxford PSC Score —

A lower score indicates a more favourable prognosis.

5-year — transplant-free survival

10-year — transplant-free survival

15-year — transplant-free survival

Estimated transplant-free survival over time

Complete the patient values to see the estimated score and survival curve.

When to use

The Amsterdam-Oxford prognostic model estimates long-term transplant-free survival for patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Its performance is stable when laboratory values from the first few years after diagnosis are used.

Why to use

The model is broadly applicable, built from readily available disease characteristics and biochemical variables. It was derived from a large, well-phenotyped, predominantly population-based Dutch cohort and externally validated in a UK PSC cohort. It supports patient counselling and management, and may aid risk stratification in clinical trials.

Scientific background

Predictive accuracy is measured by Harrell's c-statistic — the probability of concordance between observed and predicted outcomes, a generalisation of the area under the ROC curve. A c-statistic of 0.5 means no predictive power; 1.0 means perfect prediction. The Amsterdam-Oxford PSC model achieves approximately 0.70, indicating fairly good predictive properties.

Full disclaimer

The developers have aimed to reflect the state of medical knowledge based on the Dutch and Oxford PSC cohorts as of July 2016; the model may be adapted as new information becomes available. Information derived from this model is an estimation only, and consumers use it at their own risk. For medical concerns, including decisions about medications and treatments, always consult your physician or another qualified healthcare professional.

The model was derived from patients aged 18 or older and is not validated for children; its use in patients under 18 is discouraged. The developers cannot assume liability for damage or injury (including death) arising from use of this tool, and cannot be held legally, financially, or medically responsible for decisions made using it.